The three conditional funnel steps — session→cart, cart→checkout, checkout→complete — tracked weekly, each as a share of the step before it. The point: conversion isn't down for one reason. All three steps are eroding, and they multiply.
Vs. the April baseline, session→cart is −10%, cart→checkout −8%, checkout→complete −11%. No one step explains it — the whole funnel is leaking a little more at every stage.
Three steps each down ~10% don't add — they multiply. 0.90 × 0.92 × 0.89 ≈ 0.73. That's why overall CVR fell from ~2.5% to ~1.8% even though no single step collapsed.
checkout→complete held ~100 (indexed) through 5/25, then dropped to 94 and 89 in the first two June weeks — the sharpest recent move, and the one flagged as the ~Jun 4 checkout shift.
Every line starts at 100 (the average of the four April full weeks) so steps with very different absolute rates can share one axis. Below 100 = worse than April. CVR (bold) is the product of the three steps above it.
The real percentages, so you can see actual levels (the indexed view above can flatten how different these scales are).
Each cell shows the rate and its change vs. the prior week (green up / red down).
| Week of | session→cart | cart→checkout | checkout→complete | CVR |
|---|
Weeks Mon–Sun. 6/8 is a 5-day partial (rates valid). This export covers Apr 1 – Jun 13 (~11 weekly buckets) — a wider Shopify export would extend this to a full rolling 12+ weeks.
Earlier I flagged the checkout-completion drop as the headline "break." This week-over-week decomposition adds the fuller truth: the checkout step is the sharpest recent move, but it's not the whole story — add-to-cart and cart→checkout have each drifted down ~8–10% since April too. Conversion's ~27% fall is those three modest declines multiplying together.
So there are two jobs, not one:
Source: Shopify "Conversion rate breakdown" export, daily Apr 1 – Jun 13 2026. Conditional step rates: session→cart = carts ÷ sessions; cart→checkout = reached-checkout ÷ carts; checkout→complete = completed ÷ reached-checkout; CVR = completed ÷ sessions. Weeks Mon–Sun; indexed baseline = mean of the four April full weeks. June 13 (partial day) excluded.
Related: Shopify Funnel: the checkout break · LP→PDP & PDP→ATC · Funnel Deep Dive (12mo).